Phillies

[Written by David J. Miller]

It’s just over a week into June and the Phillies sit two games (just one game in the loss column) behind the Braves for first place in the NL East. May was a rough month for the Phillies and it extended into June. Normally there would have been more panic in Philadelphia after the Fightin’s were swept by the Mets (without scoring a single run) or went over 60 innings without hitting a single team homerun but luckily for the team the city has been distracted by the Flyers magical run to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Phillies should be thanking the Flyers for taking the focus off of them for a while.

Then again, it’s only June. Why all the panic? The Phillies have slipped out of first place before but always make the push they need late in the season. The team has shown that they will go out and get players to improve the team at the trade deadline. Two years ago when all the talk was about who would get Manny or C.C. Sabathia the Phillies quietly traded for Joe Blanton. The Phils went on to beat the Brewers (with Sabathia) and the Dodgers (with Manny) on their way to winning the World Series. Last year they went out and got Cliff Lee and he took us all the way back to the World Series (and won both of his starts in the series). This off season they went out and got Roy Halladay who has been stellar so far this season.

I attended last night’s Phillies vs. Marlins match-up and finally the Phillies seemed to fully break out of their funk scoring ten runs to beat the Marlins 10-8. It wasn’t just the runs they scored that were a positive sign, it was how they scored them. Down 4-0 in the 3rd inning, the Phils scored three runs with two outs. In the 8th inning, again trailing, they again scored three runs with two outs. With a two run cushion Brad Lidge entered the game and although he loaded the bases, he did not allow a run to score, looking more like the 2008 Lidge than the one from last season. When “Lights Out” Lidge recorded 43 saves (without blowing a single one) in 2008 he often allowed runners to reach base but did not allow enough of them to cross the plate to blow a save. If he can return to anything close to that form this year, the Phillies bullpen will be in good shape. So far Lidge is 3-0 in save opportunities with an ERA of 1.23.

Jose Contreras has been wonderful (both in Lidge’s stint on the DL and since his return). He has allowed just thirteen hits in over eighteen innings and has an ERA of 1.45.

When J.C. Romero is back to full strength (he also has an ERA under 2.0) the Phillies have a very strong back-end to their bullpen. We also can’t forget about Ryan Madsen who is recovering from a broken foot but will have a fresh arm when he is able to return.

The Phillies starters have been up and down but many of the losses they have recorded came in games where the team didn’t back them up by scoring runs. When a starter only lets up three or less runs (while going seven innings) it is considered a quality start. You expect to win those games, but during the recent May/June slump the team lost many of those games.

Roy Halladay has been everything he was promised to be. He has thrown five complete games, three shut outs, and a perfect game. He is 8-3 with an ERA of 2.03. In 2009 the Phillies entire starting staff had eight complete games (the most by one pitcher was three which both Lee and J.A. Happ threw).

Cole Hamels, who slumped last season after his World Series MVP performance in 2008, has looked better this season and the ageless Jamie Moyer is helping the team as well. Both pitchers have ERA’s below 4.0 and have recorded five or more wins.

Kyle Kendrick was not supposed to be a starter this year but with J.A. Happ on the DL for the majority of the season he has been serviceable. Joe Blanton has been somewhat of a disappointment this season. He has just one win with an ERA over 6.0 in seven starts (a far cry from the past two seasons).

The real question is, will Happ come back and be that third starter that the Phillies are going to need behind Halladay and Hamels in the post-season? Clearly the Phillies do not want to rely on an older pitcher like Moyer (or Pedro Martinez) in October. If Happ can’t be that guy and Blanton can’t turn it around, the Phillies will have to make a move.

The Phillies bats started off the season on fire before going ice cold for several weeks. Hopefully last night’s ten run output was a sign that the bats are back. I, for one, am not worried. Even with such dynamic hitters as Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jayson Werth, Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino, and Carlos Ruiz, the Phillies rely on Jimmy Rollins more than any other player. Rollins is the catalyst for this potent offense; when Rollins is healthy and in the lead off spot, everything comes together. In the 41 at-bats Rollins has this season, he is batting over .340 with ten walks. Lead-off runners are the key. Pitchers then have to pitch differently to Polanco, Utley, and Howard. It also allows the Phillies to drop Victorino to the sixth spot, Raul Ibanez to the seventh spot, and Carlos Ruiz to eighth. That gives the Phillies the best line-up in baseball. With Rollins out, the Phillies struggle; it’s as simple as that. When Rollins is able to return to the line-up the Phillies will begin scoring a ton of runs again. There is no need for anyone to panic.

One area I would like to see improved is the bench. Greg Dobbs, who was a wonderful pinch-hitter in 2008 has been awful this season, as has 2010 addition Ross Gload. These two players led the majors in pinch hitting the past two seasons (Dobbs in ’08, Gload in ’09) but both are hitting well below the Mendoza-line this season. The Fightin’s need a big bat off of the bench and hopefully can add one before the end of July.

All in all I’d say the Phillies are in very good shape. With all of the injuries and slumps this season they are only sitting two games out of first place in early June. By the end of June they could have a solid lead in the division. The bullpen is going to become a strength again, the bats are going to pick it up, and if they can improve the bench and the back-end of the rotation, there is no reason they can’t make another run to the World Series this fall.

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